The ultimate goal of the economic analysis is to quantify the impact of TiSA on the macro and sectoral level (e.g. change in consumer and producer prices; sectoral value added and trade changes, or labour displacement). This is a challenging task, particularly for the analysis of TiSA since there are for example differences between the autonomous level of service liberalisation (applied level) and the bound level (committed level).
As such, in order to give estimates of TiSA impacts that are as precise as possible, we will carry out the following steps (see also inception report):
- Consolidate available regulation and trade barrier data and map these to trade and production data (benchmarking data assessment);
- We will apply gravity and econometric modelling, resulting in quantified trade cost equivalents, allowing us to produce a consistent mapping applicable to the CGE assessment;
- We will conduct a scenario analysis, which includes a benchmark method to quantify trade cost reduction equivalent of binding autonomous levels of liberalisation, as well as defining which countries that are not Really Good Friends of Services (RGFs) are potentially joining TiSA and are modelled as such in a second scenario;
- Based on Step 3 we will in a final step conduct a CGE analysis, which provides main results at macro and sectoral levels – to a predetermined set of economic, social and environmental indicators.
The analysis of social impacts related to TiSA will entail the following aspects:
- Baseline description using employment, wage, and poverty and inequality indicators;
- Presentation of labour and wage related output indicators of the CGE model;
- Qualitative baseline description and impact assessment of specific social issues related to TiSA in specific RGFs through case studies;
- Preparation of a human rights approach, that prioritises human rights according to specific indicators, in order to target the most pressing human rights issues related to TiSA (as a horizontal issue or in specific RGFs).
For the environmental analysis we will prepare the following:
- Indicator-based quantitative baseline description of all RGF countries;
- Decomposition of air pollution impacts into scale and composition effects;
- Review of trade in environmental services;
- Identification of the most relevant environmental issues related to TiSA, and analysis of impacts with the help of case studies.
Through causal chain reasoning we will arrive at an analysis of direct and indirect impacts of the TiSA at sector level with a focus on the EU. We will analyse these impacts by applying qualitative techniques such as interviews and surveys, literature review, secondary data analysis, etc. to do the following:
- Describe the baseline situation;
- Identify market access conditions;
- Analyse sectoral sustainability impacts.
Finally, using the framework established in the “main” sectoral analysis we will use a difference based approach to highlight differences between the EU and selected RGFs in terms of impact in a number of case studies.
The overall analysis is focussed on TiSA impacts on the EU. However, we will cover the plurilateral character of TiSA by filtering (through screening and scoping exercises) “country-issue” combinations to be analysed in a case-study format. As such, illustrative case studies will be provided throughout this study, that is in the:
- Social analysis;
- Human rights analysis;
- Environmental analysis;
- Sector analysis.